Myth 2: Billy Bean’s teams have won a lot. Competitive, small-payroll teams are a unique byproduct of Moneyball.
Reality: Billy Beane’s first few teams got some division titles, which distracted from the fact that they have an incredible stretch of inept postseason play.

Beane’s teams are 1132-972 in the regular season since 1998 (not counting 2011). Their highest win totals came during those Giambi/Tejada years, with the team winning over 100 games in both 2001 and 2002. Neither of those years would produce a playoff series win, in fact Beane would not see an A’s playoff series win until 2006, some eight years after he took over. It remains the ONLY playoff series win under his guidance. That streak is guaranteed to continue since the A’s were eliminated from the playoffs in 2011 long ago and currently sit at 70-86 in a year during which pundits picked them as overwhelming favorites to win the division. Most importantly, this marks five straight .500 or worse seasons for the team (and only one of those was a .500 season, in 2009).

In his 13 years, the payroll has been an average of 24th. At first glance you’d think this made them unique, a team with some winning seasons despite such a low-level spending policy(mandated by A’s ownership after poor revenue during the 80s and 90s compared to the cross-bay Giants).

The Florida Marlins, however, are a reasonable comparison. Their average payroll over this period has been 26th, yet the Marlins during that time period, won the 2003 World Series against the New York Yankees – the highest paid team in the entire league. In that single year, therefore, they won more playoff series than the A’s have, under Beane’s guidance, in 13 full seasons. They also gave us this brilliant post-World Series playoff rap by Juan Pierre:

The Twins are also a good comparison, with an average payroll of 22nd (thrown way off by 2010 in which they had the 10th highest payroll – without it they’d be almost 24th). During that stretch The Twins are 1090-1015 in the regular season, own 6 division titles, and have made 6 playoff appearances with one series win.

The standard operating procedure will remain -as always from Beane supporters – to say that the wins were due to Beane’s genius, and the losses are an unfair measuring stick because they represent results-oriented analysis. The reality however is that his teams are not built for playoff wins, and don’t seem especially adept at consistently scoring in the variety of ways needed to win close October games.

Up next in true Moneyball fashion, a look at Beane’s drafting and trading, attacking the myth that he has a skill for evaluating talent.

Previous:
Myth 1: The player valuation system instituted by Beane led to outlier offensive performances by his early A’s teams
Up Next
Myth 3: Billy Beane has a unique ability for evaluating talent.
Myth 4: Billy Beane came up with the form of sabermetrics he uses with The A’s.

It’s been awhile, so I thought I’d drop a few sports observations

-Clemson/Auburn was a great game, with all the mistakes and hard working players that a great college game usually has. Hopefully the NFL starts providing some great games this weekend since the first week was the same horrid play we’ve come to expect over the last few years.

-The Jets are confusing in the sense that they made a QB the top pick, and then turned him into a game manager. It’s not that the game manager prototype wouldn’t work with their defense (it might), it’s that teams don’t win with game managers anymore, and they sure as hell don’t make game managers out of #1 overall picks. If you trust him, let him play, if not, why didn’t you take someone else in the draft?

-Rex Ryan is just a repeat of Jerry Glanville, in almost every way.

-The 49ers.. Alex Smith should get 2 more games at the most to show he can play. Missing a wide open fullback 5 yards away from you by 10 yards should automatically shorten an unproven player’s leash to practically nothing. Also, if you make that play, please don’t run off the field like a girl trying to avoid your coach’s yelling with your head down.

-Baseball pitching has been so dominant this year that I’d love a post steroids-era book by an MLB hitter on how much harder it is to hit without PEDs. The difference in several teams’ style of play this year is too drastic not to notice (that and you know.. the 5,000 no-hitters this year).

-Billy Beane, media darling and overrated hack, continues to get a pass despite trading 24 year old Carlos Gonzalez (the guy hitting .341 for the Rockies) for nothing after only a year. “Nothing” in this case means trading him for Matt Holiday, who was with the club for 15 non-eventful minutes, and was NEVER going to re-sign with a cheap club run by a self-centered GM. But hey, that ONE playoff series the A’s have won in the decade-plus that Beane has been in charge apparently earned him some leeway.